Realistic Expectations

shada

Well-Known Member
When anyone ask what I expect from Iowa I always say 8-4, 9-3 range consistently with very few 7-5(in case of bad injuries or brutal schedule) and very few 10+(perfect schedule or unbelievable close games go our way). I say I expect to beat Iowa St 9 out of 10 times, all Non-Power 5 conference members no matter how good they are, and the Indiana's, NW's, Purdues, Minnesota's of the league when those teams are average or below average. With being consistently 8-4 or 9-3 Iowa would be constantly ranked in that 10-25 range depending on who we beat and lose to toward the end. Then you sprinkle a couple 10-2 every 5-7 years and get a final 5-10 ranking. It would help recruiting out when you can say we have finished in the top 25 polls 10-15 straight years and had 3-5 of those be in top 10.

Kirk has been really close his downfall has been winning the games we "should". I understand that is why the games are played and anything is possible but if you see from the chart below if we took care of those teams we would have been extremely consistent in the 9-3/9-4/8-4 range since 2002. Below I have put what our final record would have looked like if we just took care of the ISU (besides 2002 when they finished 7-7 with 3 losses in OT), the Mac programs, and the bottom feeders of the big ten. The record looks a whole lot better and I think the program would be in a lot different position if we pulled it off. National the "experts" would respect us so much based on consistency that we would always be a preseason top 25.

Enjoy the chart below. After Realistic Record I let you know which team I have added a Win from and then also close losses that could have made that season even better. I understand Iowa had games like this years Ball St. that we could have easily lost but wanted to show that this program isn't that far off from being a consistent top 25 team. I think Bret B could get us to that spot.

YEAR
REC.
LOST TO AND RECORD
REALISTIC RECORD
2002
11-1
ISU 7-7,
11-1
2003
9-3
@MN 8-5, @OSU 11-2, @PU 9-4
9-3
2004
10-2
@ASU 9—3, @MI 9-3
10-2
2005
8-4
@ISU 7-5, @OSU 10-2, MI 7-5, @NW 3-9,
10-2 (ISU,NW) L to MI in OT
2006
6-6
OSU 12-1, @IU 5-7, @MI 11-2, NW 4-8, WI 12-1 @MN 6-7,
9-3 (IU,NW,MN) L by 3 to WI & 2 to Tx
2007
6-6
@ISU 3-9,@WI 9-4, IU 7-6, @PSU 9-4, @PU 8-5, WM 5-7
9-3 (ISU,IU,WM) L by 4 to WI
2008
8-4
@PITT 9-4, NW 9-4, @MSU 9-4, @IL 5-7
9-3 (IL) All 4 loses by total of 12pts
2009
10-2
NW 8-5, @OSU 11-2
10-2 Stanzi Hurt, OSU OT
2010
7-5
@AZ 7-6, WI 11-2, @NW 7-6, OSU 12-1, @MN 3-9
8-4 (MN) lost to AZ-7, WI-1, NW-4, OSU-3
2011
7-5
@ISU 6-7, @PSU 9-4, @MN 3-9, MSU 11-3, @NE 9-4,
9-3 (ISU, MN)
2012
4-8
ISU 6-7, CMU 7-6, PSU 8-4, @NW 10-3, @IU 4-8, PU 6-7, @MI 8-5, NE 10-4
8-4 (ISU,CMU,IU,PU)
2013
8-4
NIU 12-2, MSU 13-1, @OSU 12-2, WI 9-4,
9-3 (NIU)
2014
7-5
ISU 2-10, @MARY 7-6, @MN 8-5, WI 11-3, NE 9-4,
8-4 (ISU) Lost to WI by 2 & NE in Ot
TOTAL
101-55

119-37
 
Last edited:
sorry. Chart is sloppy compared to what it looks like before post. I will see if I can get it better.
 
Overall not bad, but you should probably throw out bowl games. If we'd won more games in the regular season, we would have been playing in different bowl games and against different teams than we did in reality. I'd look at just the regular season.
 
i have updated the chart with removing the bowl game. I can't believe how solid it would be if we took care of the teams we should. Even if you add 5 more losses it still looks really nice. Consistent top 10-25 depending on bowl outcome.

YEAR
REC.
LOST TO AND RECORD
REALISTIC RECORD
2002
11-1
ISU 7-7,
11-1
2003
9-3
@MN 8-5, @OSU 11-2, @PU 9-4
9-3
2004
10-2
@ASU 9—3, @MI 9-3
10-2
2005
8-4
@ISU 7-5, @OSU 10-2, MI 7-5, @NW 3-9,
10-2 (ISU,NW) L to MI in OT
2006
6-6
OSU 12-1, @IU 5-7, @MI 11-2, NW 4-8, WI 12-1 @MN 6-7,
9-3 (IU,NW,MN) L by 3 to WI & 2 to Tx
2007
6-6
@ISU 3-9,@WI 9-4, IU 7-6, @PSU 9-4, @PU 8-5, WM 5-7
9-3 (ISU,IU,WM) L by 4 to WI
2008
8-4
@PITT 9-4, NW 9-4, @MSU 9-4, @IL 5-7
9-3 (IL) All 4 loses by total of 12pts
2009
10-2
NW 8-5, @OSU 11-2
10-2 Stanzi Hurt, OSU OT
2010
7-5
@AZ 7-6, WI 11-2, @NW 7-6, OSU 12-1, @MN 3-9
8-4 (MN) lost to AZ-7, WI-1, NW-4, OSU-3
2011
7-5
@ISU 6-7, @PSU 9-4, @MN 3-9, MSU 11-3, @NE 9-4,
9-3 (ISU, MN)
2012
4-8
ISU 6-7, CMU 7-6, PSU 8-4, @NW 10-3, @IU 4-8, PU 6-7, @MI 8-5, NE 10-4
8-4 (ISU,CMU,IU,PU)
2013
8-4
NIU 12-2, MSU 13-1, @OSU 12-2, WI 9-4,
9-3 (NIU)
2014
7-5
ISU 2-10, @MARY 7-6, @MN 8-5, WI 11-3, NE 9-4,
8-4 (ISU) Lost to WI by 2 & NE in Ot
TOTAL
101-55

119-37
 


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