80% Win Rate for KF

[doclee]

OK. I am a stats guy by nature. I am not saying I am good at it, but I am certainly fascinated by football and basketball statistics. That said, I just read an article in the CR Gazette and was absolutely stunned when the writer said that when Iowa runs the ball 35 times (or more, I guess) in a football game, they win 80% of the time. To take it a step further, it is not outlandish to expect to run 70 plays per game. So, I guess that if you throw the ball 1/2 the time and run 1/2 the time, you would fall into the category mentioned above (yes, I am ignoring punts...so what). Maybe you guys are way ahead of me, and already realize that the weakness of our running game this year is not only unexpected, but also critical to our success. But personally, I did not realize how important it is that Iowa runs the ball on 35 + plays per game. Good grief...an 80% win record means 9.6 wins per year on a 12 game schedule. And, these stats come from the Ferentz Era...so they are very local and in my view, significant.

I do NOT make personal attacks against our players. In general, how much of this problem is centered on the fact that we have not recruited players like Melvin Gordon (who we almost landed) or Amer Abdullah, of the kid from NW, or the kid from MN? I am very pleased that we just landed a 4 star running back from Florida. I subscribe to a recruiting site and have some detail on this kid that takes your breath away. Yes, the O line has stated that they are NOT staying with their blocks at a high level, and that is clearly important. But, a RB who can get yards even when the line blocking is not stellar is pretty important.

Sorry to get so carried away, but this just hit me broadside. I would love to hear your thoughts. And, yes, throwing the ball down the field would certainly improve our run game. No argument there, my friends.

 

[koralakers]

Yes, you HAVE to be able to pass, and STRETCH the field so the corners and safeties don't crowd the line (which EVERYONE has been doing to IA for YEARS b/c not much respect for our vertical game). That, in turn ALLOWS you to run, with success.

Secondly I would imagine almost EVERY team wins at a high rate when they run the ball that often. Think about it, when you are AHEAD, you run the ball to control clock (and it's lower 'risk' than throwing). When BEHIND, especially by more than a score, most teams tend to THROW way more than run (higher 'risk', but also higher 'reward')

 

[hwk23]

More recently, we are 9-3 when Weisman gets 20+ carries. We really should be 60%+ run especially against the weak teams we've played so far. Teams like Nebraska and Wisconsin always run the ball 60-65%+ of the plays, every year. It's the same thing if you look at most top 20 teams.

If we're close to 50%, like this year, we're almost always unsuccessful. 2012 was the most recent example, only 51% run.

 

[Katan]

Those stats can also be trailing indicators. If you look at Pittsburgh and Maryland, our defense was so bad that we had to abandon the favorable ratio and throw it more. In fact, I would say the high run ratio is a sign we're ahead and maintaining - and maybe isn't a sign of how we got the lead in the first place.

 

[cincyhawk]

Iowa wins 100% of the time when they score more points than the other team. I don't care if they do it through the air or on the ground.

Kirk's teams don't adjust on offense. They never have. When they are good enough [talent] to push others around, it looks beautiful. When they aren't it looks ugly. Most years they aren't good enough.

 

[HomerChampless]

Yes Katan, how many times a team runs the ball is more an inference of success than an indicator of success. An example would be inferring roosters cause the sun to rise each morning when they crow. Running the ball is more an inference especially since Iowa's optimal running plays are designed to gain smaller chunks of yards that use lots of game time.

A good indicator of wins and loses for any football team is the quality of their defense.
Last season's linebacker defense was so much better than this season's and Iowa could win using more of a conservative offense. A team runs the ball a lot if it is comfortably ahead, but not to get ahead. Its defense determines how many times to run the ball.

 

[biasedHAWKEYE]

Is anyone else not surprised?

If Iowa's running the ball 50 times or whatever, guess what that means? They are trying to milk the clock because they are winning.

If Iowa's throwing the ball a ton, that likely means that they are losing and are trying to catch up.

That's it. That's all that it means.

 

[David79]

Is anyone else not surprised?

If Iowa's running the ball 50 times or whatever, guess what that means? They are trying to milk the clock because they are winning.

If Iowa's throwing the ball a ton, that likely means that they are losing and are trying to catch up.

That's it. That's all that it means.

This is why Iowa really needs their RB recruiting to pick up. It was a huge loss not getting Smith on campus but with him maybe being here and spring and if Higdon sticks with the Hawks, those are guys that can really help Iowa. Imagine if the they had something more than average RBs and one really good FB running the ball. The offensive line hasn't helped anything this year. The loss of Boffeli and Van Sloten was a lot bigger than I thought it would be.

 

[LG210]

I think that stat is truly a combination both, each to a degree, of causation and correlation.

 

[hawkinn3]

Those stats can also be trailing indicators. If you look at Pittsburgh and Maryland, our defense was so bad that we had to abandon the favorable ratio and throw it more. In fact, I would say the high run ratio is a sign we're ahead and maintaining - and maybe isn't a sign of how we got the lead in the first place.

I was just going to post his. A lot of runs indicates the game is close or you are ahead throughout, which usually means a victory. This is even more true for a balances offense like Iowa's (not an option or an air raid, tries to run and pass).

 

[KCHawkeye]

I agree that a near even percentage of run and passing is desirable. It's supposed to keep defenses off balance. However, many times I feel defenses have figured out when we want to run and throw.

 

[hawkinn3]

I agree that a near even percentage of run and passing is desirable. It's supposed to keep defenses off balance. However, many times I feel defenses have figured out when we want to run and throw.

Perhaps due to the fact that Jake audibles to the same play every time. You can hear the defense calling out exactly what we end up running.

 

[hwk23]

Those stats can also be trailing indicators. If you look at Pittsburgh and Maryland, our defense was so bad that we had to abandon the favorable ratio and throw it more. In fact, I would say the high run ratio is a sign we're ahead and maintaining - and maybe isn't a sign of how we got the lead in the first place.

Iowa ran the ball 66% of the plays against Pitt. Most good college teams don't use the run just to run out the clock (like some of you think Iowa does).

 

[hwk23]

I think that stat is truly a combination both, each to a degree, of causation and correlation.

Run blocking is really tiring for the opposing defense. That's one reason the number of running attempts correlates to winning games. On the other hand, pass blocking is difficult and tiring for our own OL.

Our three best scoring years under KF were 2001, 2002 and 2008 and each of those years we ran the ball 60%+. We finished 1st, 1st, and 3rd in scoring those years (no other year have we finished better than 5th and mostly we've been toward the bottom in scoring). Those are 3 of only 4 years we've ran the ball 60%+.

Last I looked. 90% of the teams in the top 20 run the ball 60%+. Now given part of the reason is a talent difference but we've also had a pretty decent talent difference over the teams we've played so far. We shouldn't be at 51% run against this schedule. I think if Bielema coached this team we run the ball 70% and beat most teams by 3 TD's we've played.

 

[NCHawker]

OK. I am a stats guy by nature. I am not saying I am good at it, but I am certainly fascinated by football and basketball statistics. That said, I just read an article in the CR Gazette and was absolutely stunned when the writer said that when Iowa runs the ball 35 times (or more, I guess) in a football game, they win 80% of the time. To take it a step further, it is not outlandish to expect to run 70 plays per game. So, I guess that if you throw the ball 1/2 the time and run 1/2 the time, you would fall into the category mentioned above (yes, I am ignoring punts...so what). Maybe you guys are way ahead of me, and already realize that the weakness of our running game this year is not only unexpected, but also critical to our success. But personally, I did not realize how important it is that Iowa runs the ball on 35 + plays per game. Good grief...an 80% win record means 9.6 wins per year on a 12 game schedule. And, these stats come from the Ferentz Era...so they are very local and in my view, significant.

I do NOT make personal attacks against our players. In general, how much of this problem is centered on the fact that we have not recruited players like Melvin Gordon (who we almost landed) or Amer Abdullah, of the kid from NW, or the kid from MN? I am very pleased that we just landed a 4 star running back from Florida. I subscribe to a recruiting site and have some detail on this kid that takes your breath away. Yes, the O line has stated that they are NOT staying with their blocks at a high level, and that is clearly important. But, a RB who can get yards even when the line blocking is not stellar is pretty important.

Sorry to get so carried away, but this just hit me broadside. I would love to hear your thoughts. And, yes, throwing the ball down the field would certainly improve our run game. No argument there, my friends.

Let's not lose sight of cause and effect here. When Iowa is ahead they almost always stop passing.

I get the jist of the whole thing though.

 

[DDThompson]

Let's not lose sight of cause and effect here. When Iowa is ahead they almost always stop passing.

This. Even when the score is 14-10 in the second half. Let the field position battle begin...(in earnest).